Originally published by Breakthrough Basketball, one of the largest coaching education platforms in the world — 150,000+ athletes trained since 2012. Republished here, with the original remaining the canonical version.

No matter how good you are at analyzing game statistics, or how much you analyze them, the use of stats alone can never assure any coach a 100% guaranteed success or win rate. The reason is simple: basketball is too complex and dynamic to be predicted accurately. It is like life, or better yet, it is like the weather — unpredictable. When a hurricane comes, no one can accurately predict how much damage it may cause. We simply do the best that we can.

So before I talk about using statistics to coach, I want to point out some important facts about player and team development.

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First, Build in the Right Order

When it comes to basketball development for players or teams, the only way to improve progressively and effectively is to approach your program and training in a particular order. If you want your team to win more games and be more successful, concentrate on five fundamental things — preferably in the order below.

1. Players’ Physical Abilities

In basketball, the team with the most physical abilities always has an advantage. Size, height, speed, strength, quickness, jumping, stamina, timing. The more a coach concentrates on developing the physical abilities of his players, the more he enhances his team’s chances of success.

Personally, I build speed, quickness, strength, jumping and stamina in my perimeter players, while concentrating on strength, stamina and jumping for post players.

2. Players’ IQ

The more players know about basketball — and about what to do or not do in every situation — the better. Knowledge of every playing position, game situation, and skill set matters. Demonstrated and instructional game situations must be outlined so players grasp them quickly.

It is important for players to watch footage of vintage, classic games featuring players with great fundamentals. When teaching effective post play, I highlight footage of Kevin McHale in the ’80s, Hakeem Olajuwon in the ’90s, and Tim Duncan — so players can appreciate how these players were effective in the post and how they reacted to defences of varying types. Reviewing your own team’s game tape is equally valuable: it shows players what they are doing right and wrong, and whether they are applying what was taught in practice.

For example, when I teach screens, I always teach players to go over or fight through the screen — never under it. Going under lets the screener lock down two defenders and leaves the offensive player wide open to shoot over the top.

3. Players’ Emotional Maturity

It is very important to develop your players emotionally. Selfishness, jealousy, and constant complaining will only hinder a team’s chance of success.

4. Players’ Psychological Development

Fear, lack of confidence, stage fright, and other emotional problems are mostly attributable to a lack of proper psychological development. Coaches must encourage and motivate, admonishing players when they make mistakes and praising them when they do the right thing. Remind them constantly of exactly what their strengths and weaknesses are. This helps players play within their limits and abilities, accept their roles, and appreciate teammates without undermining them.

5. Fundamentals & Skills Development

Basic fundamentals — passing, dribbling, shooting, defensive slides, footwork — must be practiced religiously under varied situations.

If there is one thing I’ve learned over the years, it is that the hardest things to improve in a player are the core fundamentals. If you’re a 15% three-point shooter, the chances you’ll improve to 40 or 50% are slim. But the more we practice fundamentals, the better our chances of improving individual weaknesses over time. It is exactly this kind of practice that helps weak teams improve on rebounding and assists, or reduce total team turnovers.

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Three Perspectives on Stats

As a coach, I look at stats from three perspectives: the players, the team, and the coach.

I first look at my team’s individual stats, then my opponent’s individual stats. After that, I look at my team’s totals and compare them to our opponent’s. Lastly, I look at the stats in relation to how the opposing coach is playing the game. If a coach is telling his players to shoot from outside, I’m going to look at their three-point percentage against other teams and how successful they are with that style — then strategize on how to beat them.

Looking at stats this way improves my team’s performance and chances of winning, while also helping me understand my opponents. It allows us to prepare for what they do well and attack their weaknesses.

I know what my players are good at and I know their weaknesses. I try to create a playing style that complements their abilities and minimizes their weaknesses. It’s not about copying an NBA or college team simply because a certain coach has been successful with it. I tell my players exactly how to play, where to go, and how to react to different situations. This matters, because the majority of players — especially young players — don’t know their own capabilities well, and some play without knowing what they are doing.

First and foremost, I draw a distinct line between frontcourt and backcourt players in terms of which stats we care about.

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Stats for Perimeter Players

In order of importance: turnovers, assists, steals, FT%, FG%, points.

Turnovers — Ours

When a perimeter player turns the ball over more than once in a quarter, it means the player lacks the ball-handling skills, composure, or experience to play effectively. For our team to be successful, such a player should be given a limited role or less playing time. Turnovers are the number one killer of any team.

Turnovers — Theirs

When scouting, I watch how opposing perimeter players handle and pass the ball, and how they make decisions under pressure. If their perimeter players average two to three turnovers per game, they’re giving away roughly 10–12 points per game — which makes the team weak from the perimeter. Against such a team, I pressure the ball with full-court defence and force a fast tempo.

Assists — Ours

Players who can create for others are an asset to any coach. They may collapse defenses and kick out to an open teammate, or have the confidence to keep the dribble until a player is completely open. Some have an innate ability to find the right pass for every situation — set offense, motion, or transition.

Assists — Theirs

Any player averaging five assists per game is an asset to us and a threat against us. Such players normally get heavy minutes and are the focus of their team. Against them we cut off passing lanes, close out shooters on the help side to force the guards to shoot and finish themselves, body them up in transition, and limit their vision by denying clear paths and open lanes.

Steals — Ours

A player who can guard opposing point guards well and average two to three steals per game is a game changer. An extra possession can prove valuable or fatal. When I have such a player, I put him on the opposing point guard early and encourage him to be aggressive but smart — to give us a boost and neutralize their primary ball handler from the start.

Steals — Theirs

If we’re playing a team trying to put that kind of defender on our point guard, I push our point to the two spot and our two to the point. This nullifies their strategy, takes pressure off our primary handler, and lets him play at ease and get into the groove late in the game.

Free Throw & Field Goal Percentage

We want players with high percentages — 70–80% from the line, 40% and above from the field. We view percentages quarter by quarter. What we don’t want is volume shooting at low percentages, or players who would rather “pay throws” (miss and deal with the consequences later) than take free throws seriously. If you have Shaq’s syndrome, most likely I won’t use you late in games unless you’re phenomenal in other areas.

We try not to concede unwanted fouls that give good perimeter shooters easy free throws. We close out on shooters, rise on the shot, and box out to minimise offensive rebounds.

We do our best to hold opponents under 33% from the perimeter by making them take difficult shots. I watch footage studying which shots opposing players like to take and how efficient they are from specific spots. Our strategy is never to stop players from getting to their spots, but to play at a tempo that makes them shoot in a hurry — and to have defenders recognize those spots so they can adjust the defence to make the shot difficult.

Getting in the shooter’s pocket

For shooters who are good off the dribble or off ball screens, I teach a technique I call getting in the shooter’s pocket. Every player shoots in a distinct way. Many shooters dip low and bring the ball from slightly below or above hip level where the dribble terminates, then raise it to forehead level and above before shooting.

So we make sure our defenders — big or small — stay close enough to make it difficult to pick up the dribble without brushing the ball against the defender’s body. If the defender is about an arm’s length away, we stretch out toward the pickup hand, not the shooting hand (most off-the-dribble shooters pick the ball up with the off hand). We get close enough to make them uncomfortable. If they get into the lane, we crowd them and force a retreat, or force them all the way to the rim where our bigs can choke the lane for a charge, block, or altered shot — while the small defenders recover and plug holes on drops and kick-outs.

We always contest and rise on the shot. Absolutely no wide-open shots.

Points — Ours

When we have a perimeter player with real scoring ability — shooting, slashing, transition, post, one-on-one — and he shows statistical consistency in practice and exhibition play, we fuel and encourage that. He may even become the focus of our offense, depending on his temperament and abilities. To win games, players must score.

Points — Theirs

When opponents have a player with a penchant for scoring in volume, we take that player away. Teams don’t get to beat us with one or two players — they must beat us with the entire team.

The moment a player gets hot, we cool him off by doubling up (double-teaming on the perimeter) or doubling down (double-teaming in the post), then rotating on the kick-out. There’s no other way. One player can’t beat us.

We make sure no single player scores more than 15 points against us, no matter how proficient, and that no two players — perimeter or post — score more than 25 combined. If two or more players score 30 or more against a team, they’ve likely scored a third of that team’s total for the day. If the remaining ten players average four points each, the team finishes around 70 — a high score, and difficult to beat. To beat a team reliably, you must keep them under 50–60 points.

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Stats for Post Players

For forwards I track turnovers, rebounds, blocked shots, FT%, FG%. Our expectations on turnovers, percentages, and points are the same as for the perimeter. The stats that differ:

Rebounds & Blocks — Ours

There is no way to win games without your best rebounder and rim protector on the court. These are effort stats, though some physical ability helps. I’d say rebounding is roughly 70% effort, 20% skill, 10% physical attributes. Alonzo Mourning led the NBA in blocked shots several times at barely 6’10″. Charles Barkley once had 33 rebounds in a game standing barely 6’5″.

Check during practice and exhibition games who your best rebounders and shot blockers actually are. A defensive rebound limits your opponent’s second and third chance points; an offensive rebound creates a second or third chance for your team. Rebounds should never be overlooked.

Rebounds & Blocks — Theirs

Playing against a good rebounding team — especially on the offensive glass — is no easy task. Once you scout a team and know this is a key strength, prepare your team for a war. One of the main reasons David Robinson and Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon and Otis Thorpe, and Dennis Rodman, John Salley and Luc Longley won championships was offensive and defensive rebounding. All championship teams have good rebounders.

It’s an effort stat, and it’s about psychologically preparing your team. Boxing-out and continuous rebounding drills build the intensity and confidence.

On shot blocking: to me this stat is overrated. Unless you’re Manute Bol or Dikembe Mutombo, I doubt your shot blocking really changes the outcome of a game. But a good shot blocker is still an important piece. I encourage ours to block a shot or two early to scare opponents, then simply to alter shots after that. I teach him not to overreact by leaving the floor too much or drawing fouls, which nullifies the whole point of having him. If your shot blocker picks up cheap fouls and sends players to the line, get him out.

Against a good shot blocker, our strategy is to attack him early, make him pick up fouls, and send him to the bench.

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The Untrackable Stats

Analytics and stat tracking are becoming more and more important in basketball. Science is trying to take over from instinct, experience, and gut feeling as the means of predicting, explaining, preparing, planning, and strategizing.

But there are certain things that can never be tracked.

Certain players don’t score, rebound, assist, steal, or block shots. They motivate. They lead. They organize the troops. Some play unbelievable defense and shut down other players in an uncanny way. It’s 50% effort, 50% DNA. No stat sheet will show you these players. Tony Allen of the Memphis Grizzlies and Bruce Bowen of the San Antonio Spurs — often called “blankets” — are an asset to any team. No analytics will surface them. They’re undetected by any radar. Coaches have to find them, or create them.

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In Conclusion

The key stats I concentrate on, for our team and against any opponent, are turnovers, rebounds, FG%, and FT%. The team that wins the battle in these four categories is most likely going to win the game.

Good luck coaching.

Coach Umar Ibrahim Bala
International Coach

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